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Moment of Truth for Dollar

Moment of Truth for Dollar

US dollar ended with higher valuation

Previous week ended with the US dollar being on high heels in the sense that it was up against virtually any other currency pair on the board. The reason for this comes from both better than expected US economic data and from the commodity markets as well as oil and gold are dipping there with no bullish signs in sight. As a consequence, my focus was on the USDJPY and USDCAD and the only expiration dates I traded were end of week if the trade was taken in the first part of the week for the call options and end of day on Friday as I was focusing on a small correction on the hourly chart so put options on Friday

Next week FOMC press conference will hit the market

While the USDJPY and USDCAD analysis were correct and the options pretty much expired in the money, not the same can be said about the other trades we took, like the EURUSD and GBPUSD. However, like everyone knows now, I am trading also the end of the month when the price is coming into my desired areas and feel that is the need for more consolidation or when I am trying to skip important events. One of the most important events is to come next week as the FOMC statement and press conference are going to hit the market and it is going to be the moment of truth for the US dollar.

The market is looking for the Fed to drop the forward guidance but if disappointed, then things can turn ugly. From my point of view, I am favoring put options above the 1.2840 area in USDCAD and put options as well in the USDJPY pair on a move above 122.19 Expiration date? End of the month. At least this is the trading plan I will focus on next week.

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